17 June, 2025
Canada’s Grand Strategic Turn Under Carney
Canada stands at a turning point. After decades of incrementalism, policy diffusion, and soft-power emphasis, Prime Minister Mark Carney has begun articulating a national vision that approaches the coherence of a grand strategy. While not yet formalized in doctrine, Carney’s recent statements and actions suggest a strategic reorientation, one that can be best understood through the full architecture of the Strategic Tetrahedron and the evaluative lens of its three Cs: Capability, Capacity, and Credibility.
The Strategic Tetrahedron: Anchoring Grand Strategy
The Strategic Tetrahedron models sovereign order across seven interdependent levels:
- Territory
- Population
- Infrastructure
- Total Economic Activity
- Defence & Public Order
- Government
- Leadership
Each layer supports and constrains those above it. Sovereign resilience depends on the integrity and integration of all seven.
In the Carney era, we are witnessing a deliberate re-engagement with every tier, especially the historically neglected middle strata: defence, infrastructure, and economic self-determination.
Defence & Public Order: The Fulcrum of Sovereignty
When Carney stated that “government must start by fulfilling its most fundamental role, which is to defend Canadians,” he wasn’t merely emphasizing defence spending. He was reaffirming the state’s sovereign imperative to protect territory and citizens, not as an ideological flourish, but as a prerequisite for legitimate governance.
The renewed promise to meet the 2% NATO benchmark for defence spending is noteworthy, but it should not be mischaracterized as an acceleration. Canada made this commitment as early as 2015 and has failed to deliver. The distinction now is that the government has pledged to reach the threshold within the current fiscal year. That movement, if followed through, marks not just a numerical milestone, but a long-overdue step toward Credibility.
Evaluating the Three Cs
1. Capability
Canada’s military and institutional apparatus has atrophied relative to its geopolitical significance and geographic scale. Carney’s public emphasis on rebuilding the Canadian Armed Forces, across procurement, staffing, and operational readiness, signals a recognition of lost capability and the need to restore it. Sovereign capability is more than defence platforms; it’s the operational ability to project power, secure borders, and respond to threats independently or within alliances.
2. Capacity
Even with intent, a state cannot act without the material, logistical, and human capacity to do so. Infrastructure, supply chains, energy systems, and industrial productivity are all part of national capacity. Carney’s concurrent announcements in resource development, infrastructure investment, and economic realignment suggest a more integrated view of national capacity, linking defence, energy, and industrial policy into a sovereign posture.
3. Credibility
Canada’s global partners, and adversaries, will judge not the declarations but the consistency and coherence of state action. Having underdelivered for nearly a decade, Canada’s credibility in defence and security has suffered. Carney’s grand strategic articulation must now be backed by execution. That includes budgeting, procurement, personnel retention, and above all, clarity of purpose.
Leadership, Government, and Strategic Intent
Leadership in the Strategic Tetrahedron is not merely rhetorical; it implies stewardship of the whole sovereign structure. Carney appears to be reasserting leadership as a coordinating function across ministries, portfolios, and policy domains. His early messaging links defence to economic stability, resource sovereignty, diplomatic engagement, and international alliances. This is an important shift from the performative internationalism of the previous era toward an integrated, interest-driven realism.
The government apparatus is also being retooled to serve this vision. From new defence policies to trade diversification and resource development, the Carney government is rebuilding the machinery of state around a unifying strategic horizon.
The Grand Strategic Pivot
For the first time in decades, Canada appears to be embracing the necessity of coherence under constraint. Grand strategy is not about slogans; it is about aligning means to ends within a complex system of limitations and opportunities. Carney’s messaging suggests a leader attuned to that reality.
His task now is not just to articulate, but to institutionalize the strategy: to ensure that the layers of the Strategic Tetrahedron are mutually reinforcing, and that the 3 Cs—Capability, Capacity, Credibility—are restored as the basis of Canadian sovereignty and strategic action.
This is a threshold moment. If followed through, it could mark the beginning of a new era in Canadian statecraft, rooted in realism, resilience, and responsibility.
About the Author
Richard Martin is the founder and president of Alcera Consulting Inc., and the creator of The Strategic Code—a doctrine for leaders navigating volatility, constraint, and conflict.
His mission is simple: equip leaders to exploit change and achieve strategic coherence. Through his advisory work, writing, and tools, he helps senior decision-makers see clearly, understand deeply, and act decisively in high-stakes environments.
Richard is the author of Brilliant Manoeuvres: How to Use Military Wisdom to Win Business Battles, and the developer of Strategic Epistemology and Worldview Warfare—frameworks that decode the beliefs, values, and power structures shaping strategic action in a contested world.
www.exploitingchange.com
© 2025 Richard Martin